43 Comments
User's avatar
XP's avatar

Fully on your side of pluralist, high-trust liberalism and good to hear it stated so explicitly. I'm pretty tech-positive, and probably more optimistic about AI than you are, but find e.g. crypto, with its anonymous, low-trust (and even zero-trust) foundations to be incredibly depressing and uninspiring.

I do think your list here is actually two separate dimensions, even if they do cluster around datacenters and AI:

1. The tribalist / populist / localist dimension, suspicious of people with different values. Along this line, pluralism and cultural exchange are at best a scam, at worst a pollution of what is natively good. It feels like right from the start of the "ChatGPT moment", a deep and knee-jerk objection on both sides of the aisle was basically that it was coming "from the wrong people".

This is now a deeply-rooted ideology or identity, unfortunately, some kind of reaction against globalization and social media showing people that the world is much bigger than they thought, and mostly different from themselves. On the bright side, its factual claims are easy to disprove.

2. The labor theory of value / ineffable human magic dimension, which says that all value is ultimately derived from some human's - preferably physical - effort or sacrifice. No human? No value. No sacrifice? No value. No tangible result? No value. See e.g. traditional artists implying that that some kind of soul-substance being almost physically transferred into a drawing ("every individual stroke carries meaning, which the viewer decodes as a human mind") that sets it apart from works made with AI.

This is more of an argument of convenience. As you say, it's unlikely that people were always secretly Marxists, or had a clearly developed theory of consciousness or art. It's just stating a definition that is the furthest removed from the promise of AI to reduce human effort.

The two dimensions conspire to create a narrative of "the bad alien building is intruding on our good and honest lives, and its purpose is to make the worthless thing", but they probably need to be debated separately to shift the needle.

FLWAB's avatar

“In every exchange, someone is winning and the other person is losing. Profit is usually a sign that someone’s been harmed.”

This idea is almost a human universal, we have to be taught not to think that way. This perspective is why merchants were considered the lowest social class in ancient Rome, China, Japan, and many other societies. They must be cheats: either they didn’t pay the supplier what the goods were worth, or they overcharged the buyer. It wasn’t really until Adam Smith that the idea of supply and demand changing the value of a good, and that being morally fine, became widespread.

Lomlla's avatar

Christianity/Islam prohibited charging interest on loaning money (usury) because it was so obviously devious and dishonest. Just no concept that a loan could make the lender and loanee both better off.

Sharmake Farah's avatar

My takes on how each populist belief you mentioned would fare post-AGI, and whether or not they'd become true:

> There are no positive-sum trades. In every exchange, someone is winning and the other person is losing. Profit is usually a sign that someone’s been harmed.

This will still be false post-AGI, but a weaker version of this could very well be true, where profit/trade becomes much more negative post-AGI, and zero/negative-sum interactions become more common than today as a percentage of trades.

The biggest reason for this is that human labor will become essentially worthless post-AGI for everything that isn't legally/culturally required to have a human, but their capital and land is still valuable, and empirically when this sort of situation happens, selfish motivations tend to generate disaster for less powerful groups, and trade usually exacerbates rather than reduces this (Examples here include human invasion of non-human territories to deforest areas so we can have more food, the 400 year history of colonialism starting with the Native Americans being colonized, as well as wars like the Banana Wars where the US invaded countries on the behest of company interest).

Another reason is identity issues becoming more important relative to economic issues once humans are very, very wealthy post-AGI, and in general identity conflicts are far more zero-sum/negative sum than economic conflicts today.

> Every trade-off is a trick. Anything harmful cannot be made up for by other unrelated positive effects. If someone tells you we need to make a trade-off, they’re hiding a much better solution where everyone’s better off and nothing bad happens.

This will remain false post-AGI, if only due to differing values, though if we focus on a single value system, it's not impossible that AGI tech does let us route around tradeoffs in the long run, though I assign it low probability.

> Big, global institutions are always way less trustworthy than small, local institutions. The real political axis is the virtuous, authentic, everyday, rooted people vs. the unrooted powerful cabals who run society.

This will also remain false, and the best thing you can say about it is that big, global institutions might become just as bad as small, local institutions, though this depends on their values again.

> It’s very important that all resources be spent on your specific value system and vision of the good life. Pluralism is a trick. Other people pursuing very different values are basically always a threat, because there are no positive-sum trades.

I don't think there will be no positive-sum trades post-AGI, but I think this will turn out to be a lot more true than people will give it credit for. I won't repeat myself on why our current institutions could become a lot more predatory after AGI, and then ASI, but one particular issue here is that the cost of conflict will at least for a while go way down due to AGI and nanotech, and rationalist theories of war require the cost of conflict to be sufficiently high to prevent war, and our current era of wars being very, very costly even for the winners really only held up from the 18th-21st century.

(Indeed, a lot of the reason why humans go to war with animals, besides their land being very valuable but they are not valuable in economic terms is because the conflict is essentially cost-free for humans to engage in).

> Information is not valuable and not worth spending resources to acquire. What matters is physical goods. Thus, digital goods cannot make life better. It is at least somewhat sinful to spend physical resources to produce digital goods.

Depends on values, but I'd guess this remains false for the majority of humans.

> The world is getting irrevocably worse. Technological progress is always just a march toward something worse.

Depends on values, again.

> Individual humans are magic. Any implication that things humans do can be truly replicated by machines is an attack on human dignity.

Yep, this one will be totally falsified by AGI, and I'm very sure of this.

> Some form of the labor theory of value is true. The value of a good is determined by how much thoughtful human labor has gone into making it.

Yeah, the labor theory of value will remain false post-AGI, and this is the central mistake lots of people make in economics by far.

So my main difference is that I'm a lot more pessimistic about pluralism post-AGI not breeding total wars, and I'm less optimistic than you on people having an incentive to keep most humans alive once most people aren't needed anymore for the economy to grow.

Andy Masley's avatar

Yup to be clear I think a lot of my worldview falls apart if we do get genuine AGI soon, unfortunately

Neil M's avatar

just a quick comment on a first read through, but this is a great and really interesting list. immediate follow, hope to add some real thoughts later

Peter Samuel's avatar

Spot on Masley. Like the far left many on the right are seeing the world as victim or victimizer, exploiters v. exploited. There's another problem with the DC discourse -- the shoddy framing of the discussion of costs and benefits or 'impact analysis' which emphasizes the benefits as jobs and taxes revenues. And neglects the vital importance of DCs as the heart and brain of our new online world. Like it or not the viability of the internet has become an existential issue.

Matt Reardon's avatar

I agree that AI and data center critics in particular go in for a very subtle kind of Cartesian, human dignity thing, but I don't think that a common enough low-trust populist belief to make a general list like this. Most people aren't thinking about AI at that level!

Lisa's avatar

Most people are thinking about noise and their electricity bills going up. Not super complicated.

Lisa's avatar

“Loudoun County (with the most data centers in the country) is a good example of where data centers provide huge amounts of tax revenue for the locals without causing many issues at all.”

This is factually inaccurate. Data centers have caused enough issues that they have become a major factor in Virginia state and local politics, with rises in energy prices and noise being key issues. Unconstrained data center proliferation is projected to double Virginia’s energy consumption and significantly increase energy costs.

The backlash was strong enough that the Virginia legislature did a study on the topics from the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee. https://jlarc.virginia.gov/pdfs/reports/Rpt598.pdf

It also has a lot of fiscal benefits - it’s not all bad! - but claiming very few issues misreads the situation. A lot.

See articles about its impact on Virginia politics

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/11/08/prince-william-county-gainseville-election/

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/data-center-community-relations/data-centers-were-on-the-virginia-ballot-that-might-be-new-normal-fastest-growing-asset-class-131742

https://www.vpm.org/elections/2025-10-28/election-2025-data-centers-earle-sears-spanberger-dominion-clean-virginia

https://www.eenews.net/articles/with-data-center-fights-tearing-apart-towns-virginians-cast-ballots/

Andy Masley's avatar

I guess this depends on the definition of "many issues." Like after years of being the global central hub of data centers with 5 GW of power going to them (enough to power millions of homes) and being insanely lucrative for the county, voters are now saying "Oh this raised our energy bills a bit" (even though Loudoun doesn't have higher-than-average energy bills for the state, and VA energy prices rose less than the national average over the last 5 years). I guess my claim is relative to their size, activity, and revenue, this still seems pretty minor to me. I'lll need to read more about it.

Andy Masley's avatar

Like Loudoun's household electricity rate is 14.25 cents (https://findenergy.com/va/loudoun-county-electricity/) whereas VA average is 14.72 (https://findenergy.com/va/) and the national average is 17 (https://www.thisoldhouse.com/electricity/electricity-rates-by-state). I'm somewhat skeptical that data centers actually caused a really significant jump here.

Lisa's avatar
Nov 8Edited

Data centers raise Virginia electric bills AT THE STATE LEVEL, not just the local one.

Data centers, if not regulated, are expected to double Virginia’s total energy consumption. HUGE potential costs in transmission and infrastructure, not just generation.

We also have clean energy laws that effectively require us to buy clean energy out of state if we can’t ramp up fast enough, which is expensive as hell.

Rate increases have been in double digits. That is not just “a bit.” The increases are also on counties that don’t have data centers.

See for example https://www.whro.org/environment/2025-08-20/heres-how-and-why-dominion-energy-plans-to-raise-your-electric-bill

Noise is a major issue with data centers as well and reduces value of nearby housing.

Read the JLARC report, which is bipartisan and fair. You are not accurately describing the situation. It’s not all bad, but there are real and expensive tradeoffs.

Andy Masley's avatar

I mean yeah I'm sure DCs are having a nonzero effect on VA electricity bills, but VA electricity costs have risen significantly less than the national average (+28.1% vs +35% between 2020 and 2025 https://www.construction-physics.com/p/whats-happening-to-wholesale-electricity). The double digit rate increases are a sign to me that Virginia's actually had cheaper electricity than most of America. This suggests to me that DC effects on prices have been pretty modest.

Andy Masley's avatar

Like even in the article you linked, it seems like Dominion is planning to significantly hike the rates DCs themselves pay to cover the cost. Maybe this won't be enough? But I'm not seeing much evidence that DCs are having some huge outsized effects on rates, bc the double digit rises are happening in every state, VA's is way lower than average, and in a lot of states with no DCs the costs grew way more

Lisa's avatar

Link to the Carnegie Mellon study. https://www.cmu.edu/work-that-matters/energy-innovation/data-center-growth-could-increase-electricity-bills

“New modeling from the Open Energy Outlook Initiative shows that data center and cryptocurrency mining growth through 2030 could increase average U.S. electricity generation costs by 8% and greenhouse gas emissions from power generation by 30%.”

“Other key findings from the modeling include:

Regional cost surge: Central and Northern Virginia face projected 2030 electricity cost increases exceeding 25%, the highest regional increase in the model.”

Why it matters: Absent policy action, this increase in demand for electricity generation could lead to dramatically higher electricity bills for consumers and undermine the nation’s clean energy goals.

For example, capacity market prices in the nation's largest grid operator (PJM) exploded in December 2024, from $30 to $270 per megawatt-day (MW-day), a ninefold rise that will increase bills for 67 million customers across 13 states.

Catch up quick: Traditional utility planning assumes predictable 1%-2% annual demand growth over decades, but data centers are driving regional growth rates of 20%-30% annually. This mismatch between conventional planning timelines and demand growth has exposed limitations in capacity planning practices and increased short-run electricity generation costs, with some markets heavily utilizing older and more costly fossil-fuel generators in the short run.”

Lisa's avatar

Per the NYT, “A June analysis, from Carnegie Mellon University and North Carolina State University, found that electricity bills are on track to rise an average of 8 percent nationwide by 2030 and as much as 25 percent in places like Virginia because of data centers.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/business/energy-environment/ai-data-centers-electricity-costs.html#:~:text=A%20June%20analysis%2C%20from%20Carnegie%20Mellon%20University,places%20like%20Virginia%20because%20of%20data%20centers.

Virginia has historically had a good overall business climate because of relatively low rates. Raising those rates hurts the rest of the state.

A 25% increase is a big deal that is essentially taxing everyone to benefit data centers.

Again, read the JLARC study.

Andy Masley's avatar

Right, in the future they could cause significant issues, but my point in my post that I'm responding to is that so far they haven't caused many issues at all, which I think the numbers reflect. This could all change in the future and maybe the CMU study is correct, but I also think it's correct to say that so far they haven't had an outsized effect on VA electricity prices, especially when you compare it to the tax revenue they've brought it.

Lisa's avatar

Also, realize, money coming in largely goes to the county, while infrastructure costs are spread all over the state, to people who don’t benefit.

Data centers are not paying for their impact on electricity costs.

Lisa's avatar

From the BBC article on data centers in Loudoun County

“The reason she, and so many others, are opposed to these large facilities is not just because of their overpowering appearance - a typical data centre can be 100,000 square feet, turning whole streets into large industrial blocks - but some of their side effects, too.

A massive bright blue concrete and glass data centre sits just steps from Greg Pirio's front door in Loudoun County. Thirteen years ago when he purchased his home that patch of land was filled with green trees and chirping birds.

Today, he deals with the centre’s impacts in real time - the one that bothers him the most is the noise pollution.

"There are no birds around here anymore," he said, noting the humming or buzzing noise the centre emits scares away a lot of wildlife from his area.

Data centres can raise the electricity rates of everyone around them

In addition to the noise concerns, people who live in the area expressed frustration with rising electricity bills.

In the past five years, wholesale electricity costs have gone up by as much as 267% in areas near data centres, an investigation by Bloomberg News found.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93dnnxewdvo

Akaash Kolluri's avatar

Good post, though I think 1 becomes more understandable when data centers get tax breaks. Your energy bills rise in the here and now when everything is already expensive, in exchange for tax contribution to the community further down the line. The math may pencil out, but I get anger in that case.

Warren Wimmer's avatar

I've re-posted Andy's essay on "X" and LinkedIn as there is much to commend it. My group, globalleadersassembly.org is approaching the low-trust, local level by fostering dialogues on global policy at the local level. While pernicious demagoguery and malicious algorithms are feeding low-trust populism, elites ( I include myself) usually don't hear the voices of local concern when macro economic decisions are laid at their doorstep. I believe in Ricardian comparative advantage so that there is more than zero sum advantages to trade, i.e., the economic pie should grow for all parties.

However, local and regional economies can be crippled for the "greater good" of importing lower steel, aluminum, car, and manufacturing costs, etc from elsewhere. Low-trust communities have lived this nightmare. Similarly, data center developers are not "listening " to local communities who are concerned with higher retail electricity prices and ignore or dismiss health concerns from the use of reciprocation engines to "temporarily" fuel the energy demand of data centers (See Gemini: Gas turbines generally produce significantly lower emissions of most major pollutants than reciprocating engines, particularly regarding nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, particulate matter (PM), and un-burned hydrocarbons (UHC), including methane slip.

Perhaps through constructive dialogue amongst policymakers, developers, health experts, labor, etc., we might find mutually agreed solutions to sound economic development in a timely manner.

Krane's avatar

I've never met or heard tell of one of you glassy-eyed AI proponents being even mediocre at any art or craft.

"Ummmm humans aren't magic, silly! AI can direct movies too!"

No it can't, and if you don't understand why you are too far gone and the only conclusion I can muster is that you must be one of those weak pitiful people who has decided to embrace the rot. I feel as though you would have been one who would've voted to demolish Pennsylvania Station. I feel as though you'd have been proud to.

Andy Masley's avatar

I never said AI can currently direct good movies. This goofy overreaction is exactly what I’m talking about. Low trust people always talk like supervillains

S.H. Jacobs's avatar

Way to go with the ad hominem (irony).